Rep. Eli Crane's hold on Arizona's 2nd Congressional District looks shakier than it did two years ago.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Oct. 23 shifted its rating of the CD2 race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," one step above toss-up, according to Tucson Sentinel reporting. Crane, R-Oro Valley, faces Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former Navajo Nation president, in a Nov. 3 rematch.

The downgrade matters locally. Crane lives in Oro Valley, though the sprawling district itself covers northern and eastern Arizona, including rural towns, ranching communities and several tribal nations, Fox 10 Phoenix reported. Congressional representatives are not required to live in their district.

In 2024, Donald Trump carried CD2 by 15 percentage points, and Crane defeated Nez by 9 points, according to the Tucson Sentinel. Cook's race summary notes that Crane "doesn't have the tailwinds that boosted him in 2024."

The Arizona Republic reported Oct. 24 that the district has seen a sharp uptick in campaign spending and heightened interest from political analysts approaching the election.

Latino voter shift adds pressure

Declining Latino support for Republicans is one factor analysts are watching. A Pew Research Center survey of 774 Hispanic registered voters, conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 4, found that Trump's job approval among Latino voters fell to 24%, down from 38% when he returned to office in early 2025, according to the Pew report released Oct. 16.

Among Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024, approval dropped from 93% to 57% over the same period, Pew found.

Latinos account for 14% of eligible voters in CD2, according to Arizona Redistricting Commission data cited by the Tucson Sentinel. Statewide, they make up 23% of eligible voters.

Lisa Sanchez, associate professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy, told the Tucson Sentinel that Trump's immigration agenda "has especially alienated many Hispanic voters." She added that Latino voters "are important voters to mobilize in competitive elections" because they are more likely to split their tickets.

Samara Klar, a professor at the same school, told the Tucson Sentinel that presidents' parties typically lose seats in midterms and that Trump's low approval ratings will likely make that "a little more intense" than usual.

The candidates

Crane, a former Navy SEAL and Trump-endorsed incumbent, has pushed legislation to ban congressional stock trading and eliminate federal taxes on tips, according to Fox 10. He has made border enforcement a central platform issue.

The Arizona Agenda reported in September that Crane's campaign did not respond to its questions. The outlet also reported that Crane scrubbed language opposing "unnecessary, drawn-out American military campaigns" from his campaign website as the Iran War continued, citing Arizona Mirror reporting.

Nez, who grew up in Shonto in a home without electricity or running water, is running on what he calls his "Warrior Up Agenda," focused on lowering household costs, protecting water supplies and directing federal funds to rural infrastructure, according to Fox 10. If elected, he would be the first Indigenous person to represent Arizona in Congress, the Arizona Agenda reported.

Libertarian Curtis Goodwin is also on the ballot.

Polling locations on Nov. 3 will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m., according to the Arizona Secretary of State's Office.