Democrat JoAnna Mendoza declared victory over Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th Congressional District on Tuesday, Nov. 3. She led in unofficial returns in the race that directly represents Oro Valley and Catalina Foothills voters.

The Associated Press had not called the race as of Wednesday morning, Nov. 4. Mendoza led 52.9% to 44.9% at that point, according to KTAR. Earlier in the evening, her margin had been wider, starting at 58% to 39% in the first ballot release before narrowing to 54% to 44% as more votes were counted, the Tucson Sentinel reported.

Decision Desk HQ called the race in Mendoza's favor, according to KTAR.

Many ballots remain to be counted. An unknown number of early ballots dropped off in recent days or on Election Day still need verification by the Pima County Recorder's Office and election officials in other counties, according to the Tucson Sentinel.

Mendoza takes the stage

Mendoza declared victory around 9 p.m. at an election night party at the Westward Look, telling a crowd of about 200 people, "We did it! We won!" according to the Tucson Sentinel.

A Navy veteran who served 20 years in the Navy and Marine Corps, Mendoza is also a former Marine Corps drill instructor, according to KTAR and KVOA. She grew up in Eloy with farmworker parents and spoke about her upbringing in poverty and her decision to join the military, according to the Tucson Sentinel.

Ciscomani urges patience

Ciscomani, the two-term Republican incumbent, spoke just after the first results were released. He addressed about 100 supporters at an office complex at Campbell Avenue and River Road, according to the Tucson Sentinel.

He told the crowd the race would likely take days to be called. Ciscomani trailed Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel on election night in 2024 before coming back to win as more ballots were tallied in the days after that election. He won that race by about 1.5 percentage points, KGUN9 reported. KGUN9 noted the district has a reputation for elections that cannot be decided for days after election night because rural votes come in more slowly.

Election Day vs. early vote split

The split was stark.

Ciscomani had the edge in ballots cast on Election Day: 15,569 to 5,734 across the entire district, according to the Tucson Sentinel. But Mendoza's large lead in early voting gave her a 144,000 to 113,000 vote lead on election night.

The first ballot release after 8 p.m. represented early ballots tabulated ahead of polls closing by the Pima County Elections Department and officials in Cochise, Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties.

Big money, swing district

CD6 spans parts of Pima, Pinal, Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Most of its population lives in Tucson suburbs, including Oro Valley, Catalina Foothills, Marana and Green Valley. The district has a slight Republican voter registration edge and a Cook Partisan Voting Index of EVEN, according to the Tucson Sentinel and KJZZ.

The race drew heavy spending. Mendoza had spent more than $10 million and Ciscomani more than $7 million as of Sept. 30, according to the Tucson Sentinel. Outside groups spent more than $26.6 million in the district, the Tucson Sentinel reported, citing OpenSecrets.org.

A Mendoza victory would contribute to a wave of Democratic wins in congressional races across the country, according to KJZZ. Green Party candidate Gary Swing was also on the ballot, according to KTAR.

Ballot counting continues across the five counties in the district.